Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican nominee in the Virginia Governor’s race, is in trouble. That’s a hypothesis based on weak fundraising, high-profile staffing changes and damning polling showing Democrats surging as they seek to flip the Governor’s Office.
On Tuesday, news broke that Earle-Sears was bringing on a new Campaign Manager in hopes of quelling concerns about her campaign’s failure to gain traction. Assuming the role is Corey Barsky, a Pennsylvania-based strategist who was already serving as a senior advisor on the campaign. He replaces Will Archer, who was demoted last week. Earle-Sears’ political director, Richard Wagner, has departed the campaign, according to The Hill.
“This thing is a clown car she’s got going on,” conservative talk show host John Fredericks, who served as Trump’s 2016 and 2020 Virginia campaign Chair, told The Hill. He also called the campaign “a dreadful operation.”
Virginia Republican Party Chair and state Sen. Mark Peake pushed back against that claim in an interview on Fredericks’ talk show, positioning staffing changes less as a sign of trouble and more as a sign of “a change in strategy” that will lead to a more forward-facing campaign that hosts more events and is more responsive to the media.
But Fredericks isn’t the only Republican concerned about Virginia’s state of play at the top of this year’s ticket.
POLITICO columnist Jonathan Martin penned an article this week outlining how GOP leaders, at the Republican Governor’s Association annual Summer fundraiser in Aspen, contemplated how they can get away with contributing as little as possible to Earle-Sears’ campaign. The group has so far given just $500,000, a paltry sum compared to the $10.7 million it gave during the 2022 cycle to then-Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin.
Martin reports that Earle-Sears has been reluctant to make fundraising calls, even to top donors that should be fueling her campaign. That includes President Donald Trump’s 2024 Co-Campaign Manager, Chris LaCivita, who is based in Virginia.
Indeed, fundraising totals bear out that concern. Virginia state Board of Elections data shows Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee for Governor, raised more than $4.2 million in the most recently concluded fundraising period, spanning financial activity from June 6 through June 30. During the same period, Earle-Sears raised less than $2.4 million.
Worse for the Republican candidate, she ended the period with just $4.5 million on hand, while Spanberger retained more than $15 million.
And polling is on Democrats’ side. The most recent polling from Virginia Commonwealth University earlier this month showed Spanberger leading with 49% support to just 37% for Earle-Sears, a 12-point lead that will be difficult to overcome. It’s also a downslide from December, when the same pollster found Earle-Sears 10 points back.
Another poll from Roanoke College in late May was even worse for Earle-Sears, with a 43% to 26% lead for Spanberger.
Virginia races this year could have national implications — or at least serve as a taste of what’s to come nationally in next year’s Midterm Elections. It’s one of two states that host statewide elections the year after a Presidential Election, along with New Jersey.
The two states’ off-year elections often serve as a bellwether for the Midterms, and as a referendum on the party in power in Congress and the White House, currently all controlled by Republicans, though narrowly in the House and Senate.
With the Governor’s race trending in Democrats’ favor so far, that could trickle down to legislative races, where Democrats are working to maintain and grow the Party’s newly-acquired majority. The DNC earlier this month announced a $1.5 million injection into coordinated campaigns in the state, including the Governor’s race and down-ballot legislative races.
While some in the GOP quietly point to challenges with Earle-Sears’ campaign, the sluggish performance so far may also have to do with political winds.
Virginia has been shifting back toward the political left, with Democrats gaining back complete control of its Legislature in 2023 and with then-Vice President Kamala Harris winning last year’s Presidential Election in the state by less than 6 points, though that’s a much smaller margin that former President Joe Biden’s win in the state in 2020, which was a 10-percentage-point victory.
