One of the nation’s top political prognosticators says U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff will likely win re-election in November.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a project of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, just shifted the Georgia Senate race to the “Leans Democratic” column. The race was previously listed as a “Toss-up.”
That still leaves Ossoff as the most endangered Democratic incumbent in the U.S. Senate, according to the Center. But a national environment showing weaker support for Republicans among non-White voters should ease concerns for the freshman Senator as he seeks a second term, according to Kyle Kondik, managing editor for Crystal Ball.
“Ossoff, a conventional modern Democrat, does have some challenges, for sure — Georgia has become a key swing state although it also still has a little streak of red mixed in with its purple, and it is reasonable to wonder whether Ossoff can generate the level of Black turnout that winning in Georgia will require,” Kondik wrote.
“But this also should be a Democratic-leaning year overall. Ultimately, if Democrats could win Georgia Senate races in a pair of 2020 runoffs as well as in the 2022 midterm, they should be favored to do so in a 2026 midterm.”
Ossoff won his seat in that 2020 runoff, unseating Republican U.S. Sen. David Perdue in a closely watched election a day before Congress certified Democrat Joe Biden’s win in the Presidential Election.
Ossoff won the same day as fellow Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock, who had to stand for re-election in 2022 and won then too.
This will again be a Midterm environment, and one where Republicans appear to be facing heavy headwinds after Donald Trump’s return to the White House. But Kondik said Georgia Republicans have not fielded an especially strong GOP candidate. Nine Republicans, including U.S. Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins and football coach Derek Dooley, are running in a May 19 Primary.
But Kondik makes it clear the race is far from over. Whatever candidate wins the Democratic nomination for an open Governor’s race could impact turnout in minority communities significantly. Republicans currently hold the Governor’s mansion.
“This race is likely to be decided by only a few points either way — we just think Ossoff is likelier to end up on the winning side of that margin,” Kondik wrote.
