Democrats have reason to rejoice in one of two statewide Governor’s races before voters this year. The latest prediction from Sabato’s Crystal Ball, shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger with a sizable advantage over GOP candidate Winsome Earle-Sears.
The Virginia race is expected to be a bellwether for the 2026 Midterms.
With early voting beginning September 19, the report, a product of The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, finds Spanberger’s lead waning, but still at a 46% to 39% advantage over Earle-Sears, according to the latest Roanoke College poll in August.
The report, published Thursday, points out that the gap between the two candidates has closed by 13 percentage points, after Spanberger previously led Earle-Sears 43%-26% in May.
“Of course, a 10-point swing from the same pollster in a key race is notable, but we always thought that a 26% baseline was too low for any major-party statewide candidate in Virginia,” The Center for Politics wrote. “In other words, we saw Roanoke College’s polls less as momentum for Republicans and more as the difference between a poll that was too good for Democrats and one that is more in line with where the race ‘should’ have been all along.”
An August 26 poll from co/efficient, however, closes the gap even further between the two candidates, with a 48%-43% lead for Spanberger.
Analysts from the Center, simply put, see the shift in polling to a more narrow lead as a polling correction.
“To be clear, we also don’t necessarily think Spanberger is ‘actually’ leading by considerably more than what these polls show—mid-to-high single digits may very well be where the race is at,” the report added.
But the report acknowledged volatility in the race, pointing to a recent incident in Arlington in which a Spanberger supporter displayed a racially insensitive sign directed at Earle-Sears saying that if transgender individuals cannot use the bathroom for the gender for which they identify, than “Blacks” can’t use their water fountain, a throw back to when drinking fountains were racially segregated. Spanberger immediately condemned the sign, but the incident could help rally Republican support for Earle-Sears after her campaign was failing to unify the party.
But pocketbook issues may negate any gains.
“More recently, Democrats in key races across the country have hit Republicans on their support of Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill.’ Spanberger’s latest ad ties Earle-Sears to the higher costs of living that Democrats argue the bill may bring,” the report notes. And indeed Spanberger has touched on the issue in recent campaign advertisements.
Spanberger also holds a large financial advantage over Earle-Sears, with Spanberger having $18.5 million in spending and future reservations, $16 million more than her opponent, according to AdImpact Politics.
“Our bottom line for the 2025 gubernatorial races is that a Republican win in … Virginia in November would be an upset,” the Crystal Ball report notes.
