Four statewide offices are up for grabs this year, but the state’s strong Republican advantage is expected to result in a clean sweep for the GOP.
Alabama has long been a Republican stronghold, and voter registration trends show the party’s edge hasn’t dulled. According to L2 voter data, the state has about 3 million registered voters, including 1.90 million Republicans and 1.24 million Democrats — a nearly 20-point advantage for the GOP.
Statewide election results generally reflect that edge, with the lone modern exception being the 2017 Special Election for U.S. Senate, which saw Democrat Doug Jones defeat Republican Roy Moore.
The result was mostly due to Moore being a deeply flawed candidate, and when Jones ran for re-election in 2020, he lost to Republican Tommy Tuberville in a landslide.
Though Moore ran for the GOP nomination again this year, his loss in the Republican Primary quashed Democratic hopes.
The 2022 U.S. Senate contest pits Republican Katie Britt against Democrat Will Boyd, with most polling averages predicting a rout. According to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, Britt has a 99% chance to win and her margin is expected to be 20 points or more.
It’s a similar story in the races for Governor, where incumbent Republican Kay Ivey faces Democrat Yolanda Flowers; Secretary of State, where Republican Wes Allen faces Democrat Pamela J. Laffitte; and Attorney General, where incumbent Republican Steve Marshall faces Democrat Wendell Major.
For the most part, pollsters haven’t tested the waters in these races, and respected political prognosticators have given them only minimal attention.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, for example, described Marshall as “the overwhelming favorite in this strongly red state.”
Fundraising data alone shows Ivey is primed to win another term as Governor — Flowers has recorded just a couple thousand dollars in contributions. Flowers is also a newcomer to politics and lacks the campaign infrastructure of more experienced Democrats, not that it would have made much difference barring a total meltdown on the GOP side.
And in the Secretary of State election, Allen is the presumed victor with some news outlets incorrectly reporting he had won the race without opposition.
Expect these races to be called shortly after the polls close on Nov. 8.
