Raphael Warnock, Herschel Walker tied in latest poll

A new NPR/Marist Poll shows Democratic U.S. Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker are tied heading into Election Day.

The survey showed each candidate earning 48% support, with just 3% undecided and 1% telling the pollster they planned to vote for a third-party candidate.

A positive sign for Warnock is that 98% of Democrats say they plan to vote for him while only 1% plan to cross the aisle. By comparison, Walker has 87% support among GOP voters, with 8% of them telling the pollster they will defect and cast their ballot for Warnock.

Meanwhile, independents are leaning toward Warnock 48%-36% with 14% undecided and 2% planning to vote for someone else.

While the two candidates are tied in the poll, Warnock’s support is more concrete as 52% of those who said they are backing him indicated they already cast their ballot either by mail or by in-person early voting. Just 46% of Walker’s supporters have already voted.

Though Warnock leads in most metrics, he is polling even due to Marist predicting that Republicans will cast 40% of total ballots in Georgia’s Midterm Elections while Democrats will cast just 34%. The remaining 25% of ballots will be cast by third- and no-party voters.

NPR/Marist also polled the Governor race, finding incumbent Republican Gov. Brian Kemp leading Democratic nominee Stacey Abrams by 8%, which falls outside of the poll’s margin of error.

Like in the U.S. Senate race, fewer Democrats are crossing over, with 97% saying they will vote for Abrams and 2% planning to vote for Kemp. By comparison, 94% of Republicans say they will vote for Kemp and 4% plan to vote for Abrams.

While Abrams leads 51%-49% among those who have already voted, Kemp holds a 53%-40% lead among voters who have yet to cast a ballot.

The poll was conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 2 and has a sample size of 1,009 registered voters who said they planned vote in the Midterms. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

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