Virginia gubernatorial Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger’s lead over Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, has narrowed significantly, according to a new Roanoke College poll.
The poll shows Spanberger’s 43%-26% lead over Earle-Sears in May tightening to just 7 percentage points, to 46%-39%.
About 14% of likely voters polled remained undecided, while 1% said they would vote for a different candidate.
Between August 11 and August 15, 702 Virginians were surveyed, with 83% of registered voters saying they were likely to cast a ballot for the Governor’s General Election in November.
“The race for governor appears to be tightening, but Spanberger still leads,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College and professor emeritus of political science at the university. “Many Republicans seem to have ‘come home’ to Earle-Sears since the May poll, but Spanberger’s voters are slightly more enthusiastic about voting and more certain of their vote.”
Spanberger posted a 44% favorability, an increase from May’s poll results at 41%. Earle-Sears also saw a favorability boost, from 32% in May to 36% in August.
Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who is not running again due to term limits, also saw his favorability increase from 44% in May to 50% by August.
Democratic Lt. Gov. candidate Ghazala Hashmi holds a 3-point lead of 38%-35% over her Republican opponent John Reid, while Republican incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares is within striking distance of his Democratic opponent, Jay Jones, who holds a slight edge of 3-points, at 41%-38%.
“The races for lieutenant governor and attorney general are both within the poll’s margin of error, suggesting the election is far from over,” Wilson said. “It should be noted that this poll was statistically weighted to match the 2021 Virginia exit poll, which was a good year for Republicans.”
Wilson added that in polls close to elections, the IPOR uses the most recent relevant exit polls, “because it is a more objective standard than estimating which groups we think are more or less likely to vote.”
But that consideration could indicate a possible under-performance for Republicans come Election Day.
When asked about what party could handle particular issues the best, most participants said Democrats could handle health care, including Medicare and Medicaid access; education; and the environment better than their Republican counterparts.
But voters indicated Republicans would be more able to address inflation, immigration, taxes, and debt.
The poll was taken Aug. 11-15 among 702 likely Virginia voters. It has a margin of error of 4%.
