The race to replace Democratic North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper is a dead heat, according to a new poll from Cygnal commissioned by the Carolina Journal.
Republican Mark Robinson’s lead over Democrat Josh Stein, the state’s current Attorney General, has shrunk to just one-tenth of a percentage point, at 39.2% support for Robinson and 39.1% for Stein. That’s a drop for Robinson, the state’s current Lt. Governor, of 0.7 percentage points from last month and 4.5 percentage points since March.
Stein, meanwhile, has held steady with polling ranging from a low of 37.9% to his high now.
“The lead Mark Robinson enjoyed earlier this year is all but gone,” said Carolina Journal publisher and John Locke Foundation CEO Donald Bryson. “This has not translated in a significant bump in Stein’s numbers, but rather an increase in support for third party candidates and undecided voters. Both Stein and Robinson campaigns will have to put in overtime to pull out a win in this race.”
While third-party support is relatively insignificant — Libertarian Mike Ross pulled 3.7% support in the latest poll and Green Party candidate Wayne Turner managed just 0.8% support — it’s a sign that Robinson supporters are peeling off, but not necessarily in favor of Stein.
Robinson has been a controversial figure who has, at times, made incendiary comments about LGBTQ+ issues and women in Christian leadership. And Robinson once called former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton a “heifer” and former First Lady Michelle Obama a man.
Robinson is a staunch anti-abortion leader, but he also reportedly paid for a partner to have an abortion in the late ’80s, according to Axios.
His various controversies may be giving more moderate Republican voters pause.
The poll results in the Governor’s race are outliers when compared to other findings.
Robinson is underperforming and Stein overperforming as it relates to other Republicans, including generic ones.
Former President Donald Trump (who has endorsed Robinson) leads incumbent President Joe Biden by 4.5 points, for example, and respondents were more likely to favor a generic Republican candidate for Congress (48.3%) than a Democratic candidate (42.6%). Likewise in legislative races, 47.2% of respondents said they would choose a Republican candidate, while only 43.2% would vote for a Democrat.
And the Cygnal poll also differs from a Quinnipiac University poll taken last month, which found Stein with a 6-percentage-point lead over Robinson. Stein’s edge in that poll was largely fueled by a lead among political independents (52% to 43%) and from some crossover support from Republicans bucking their party — Democrats support Stein 96% to 3%, while Republicans support Robinson just 87% to 8%.
Robinson defeated state Treasurer Dale Folwell and trial lawyer Bill Graham in last month’s GOP Primary. If he wins in November, he would be the state’s first Black Governor. Stein would be the state’s first Jewish Governor if elected.
Republicans are pushing hard to elect Robinson to flip the Governor’s mansion. The GOP already holds a narrow veto-proof majority in both chambers of the state Legislature and controls the state Supreme Court. Now, they’re looking for the trifecta, which has been elusive for the party. Democrats have lost just one Governor’s race since 1992.
The Republican Governors Association is already buying in. Last month, just hours after Robinson was declared the party nominee, the group launched a website attacking Stein, though it did not specifically mention Robinson.
The Cygnal poll was taken among 600 likely General Election voters. It has a margin of error of 3.99 percentage points.
