A new poll from Quinnipiac University shows President Joe Biden leading former President Donald Trump in a rematch, with 50% support for Biden and just 44% support for Trump.
That’s an improvement for Biden who, as of the previous Quinnipiac poll taken in late December, was in a statistical dead heat with the former President, at 47% to 46%, respectively.
Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley, Trump’s remaining competition for the GOP nomination, likes the results. The poll shows that if she were in a head-to-head matchup with Biden, she’d have the edge, with 47% support compared to 42% for Biden.
The super PAC supporting Haley’s presidential bid, SFA Fund Inc., sent an email blast to supporters Thursday touting the poll results and cautioning Republican voters of the consequences should they put Trump on the General Election ballot for the third time.
“Donald Trump lost in 2020, and if he’s the Republican nominee again in 2024, we will painfully watch Kamala Harris congratulate Joe Biden again and be stuck with four more years of his woke, liberal policies,” said SFA Fund Inc. spokesperson Preya Samsundar.
“With Biden headed to victory over Trump, the only question left is, will any of these elected officials who have endorsed Trump finally admit that he’s a two-time loser?”
But the PAC’s excitement ignores a crucial fact — Haley only dominates Biden if they’re the only presidential candidates on the ballot.
On a five-person ballot, which assumes the entrance of three third-party or no-party candidates, Biden would receive the majority of the vote, at 36%, while Haley would trail at 29%. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., meanwhile, would capture 21% support. Cornel West, also an independent, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein would receive 3% and 2%, respectively.
The Quinnipiac Poll also looked at a five-person matchup with Trump on the ballot instead of Haley. There, Biden also leads, with 39% support. Trump follows at 37%.
The difference-maker is Kennedy. Both West and Stein perform the same in the poll regardless of which Republican is on the ballot. But Kennedy performs better against Haley than Trump. Against Trump, he has just 14% support.
Still, there is plenty of optimism for Haley in the poll, and perhaps some data for GOP voters to consider. With Trump on the ballot, Biden receives 35% support among independents, while the former President earns just 27% support. A Haley nomination would see her perform better among independents, with 37% support. But Biden’s support also grows, with 53% of independent voters choosing Biden.
Also problematic for Haley is her relative weakness among Republicans. While GOP voters support Trump on the General Election ballot with 91% of the vote, Haley would only capture 79% of the vote, bleeding support to independent and third-party candidates.
Biden, meanwhile, has strong party loyalty, with 96% support among Democratic voters in a hypothetical matchup against Trump and 87% support among Democrats against Haley.
While Haley’s campaign is looking at this poll as an opening to appeal to voters whose top priority is defeating Biden, she still faces a monumental challenge in toppling Trump in the GOP Primary. The Quinnipiac poll also found that among those polled who support a particular Primary candidate, 40% of Trump supporters were “extremely excited” to vote for him, while 29% were “very excited.
Haley’s numbers are much lower, with 14% of her supporters indicating they were “extremely excited” to cast a vote for the former South Carolina Governor and 19% saying they were “very excited.”
There is good news for Republicans in general though. While Biden remains the heavy favorite to secure the Democratic nomination, his voters aren’t as fired up about hitting the polls to vote for Biden as Trump supporters are to cast a ballot for the former President. Only 19% of Biden voters are “extremely excited,” while 25% are “very excited.”
