A new poll shows former President Donald Trump maintaining a narrow lead over incumbent President Joe Biden.
The front-runner for the GOP nomination, Trump garnered support from 41% of registered voters in a national survey from Florida Atlantic University and Mainstreet Research. Meanwhile, only 37% of respondents backed Biden, with 13% saying they prefer an alternative to both and 9% remaining undecided.
National polls have typically been showing Trump with a slight advantage over Biden of 1 to 4 percentage points.
Trump also continues to dominate among White voters, particularly White voters without a college degree. Biden maintains his advantage among Black voters, at 63% support, but his support among White voters lags significantly, at 32%.
Hispanics likewise have shifted to Trump’s corner, with 41% supporting the former President compared to just 33% for the incumbent Democrat. That represents a shift in voter trends that began in 2020 and has continued since, whereby Hispanic voters are increasingly supporting GOP candidates despite historically favoring Democrats.
Further, Trump leads among White voters without a college degree, with 52% support.
“Former President Trump is maintaining a commanding lead with White non-college educated voters,” FAU Political Science Professor Kevin Wagner said. “This group has been steadfast and largely unmoved in their support of the former President.”
In more bad news for Biden, he is nowhere near as popular among party voters as Trump. Of Democrats who voted for Biden in 2020, only 72% say they are again choosing Biden this year. While Trump has had some fall off too, it’s not as bad, with 86% of those who voted for him in 2020 saying they will do so again this year (assuming, of course, Trump secures the GOP nomination).
“Trump commands substantively higher support from his own party members than Biden, which could be a strong asset for Trump but poses a serious threat to Biden,” FAU Associate Professor of Political Science Dukhong Kim said.
“To improve his chances of victory, Biden must enhance support among African Americans and Hispanics, traditional Democratic Party constituencies, while also strengthening his appeal among party members.”
That might be a challenge for the incumbent Democrat — 79% of respondents said they were highly likely to maintain their current choice in November, leaving only 21% left to woo.
Biden’s struggling poll numbers come as he continues to suffer upside down approval ratings. Only 38% of poll respondents approve of Biden’s job performance (including 23% who strongly approve and 15% who somewhat approve) while a staggering 57% disapprove (including 38% who strongly disapprove and 19% who somewhat disapprove).
Those numbers closely mirror Trump’s approval rating in January 2020, before he would go on to lose the General Election to Biden.
The poll also reveals something of an anomaly among voters. While support for Biden lags, voters are slightly favoring Democrats in congressional elections.
“Congressional elections are again likely to be fairly close suggesting that either party may control the House in the next year,” Wagner said.
Of those polled, 39% said they favor Democratic candidates in congressional races, compared to just 36% support for GOP candidates. The difference reflects the challenge Democrats face in holding the White House this year with an aging and unpopular President back on the ballot.
The poll was conducted Feb. 2-3 among 1,180 adult registered voters using text messages and an online panel. The poll does not have a reportable margin of error. Pollsters note it is intended to represent the voting population of the U.S.
