Virginia Republicans could be facing heavy losses in the state’s gubernatorial and House of Delegates races this November, according to a new analysis from State Navigate.
The group published the analysis Monday, which showed Republican nominee Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle Sears behind former Democratic U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger by a whopping 11.4%. Worse for Sears, the group estimates Spanberger has a 96% chance of becoming Virginia’s next Governor.
Democratic state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, who is the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor after winning the Primary by a narrow margin in June, was given an 89% chance of defeating Republican opponent John Reid, according to the group.
Republican Attorney General incumbent Jason Miyares is also reportedly trailing former Democratic Delegate Jay Jones in polls, and State Navigate gives him just a 10% chance of retaining his seat this year.
“Most observers of the Virginia election this year likely won’t be surprised by these statewide forecasts, whether familiar or unfamiliar with them, other than the race for Lieutenant Governor being the closest at the moment,” the analysis states.
Virginia Democrats are further projected to flip seven seats in the House of Delegates, with State Navigate predicting a 76% chance of a maintained Democratic majority, a 15% chance of gaining a Democratic supermajority, and only a 6% chance of Republicans reclaiming the majority. The group estimates Democrats could have a 58-42 advantage in the House after the 2025 elections.
Furthermore, Democrats are favored to win six out of eight seats currently held by Republicans, although gaps in Democratic campaigning could see wins for Republicans in northern Virginia Beach, Lynchburg, and Harrisonburg.
State Navigate added that Democrats are likely to target districts that narrowly voted for President Donald Trump in the 2024 election, including Blacksburg and parts of Prince William County if they sense there is an opportunity to flip it, especially if Trump’s approval rating continues to decline.
“Such opportunities for Democrats are mostly driven by whatever President Trump’s approval is at,” State Navigate wrote. “At the end of the day, the net loss in presidential approval from the start of a President’s term compared to its standing by Election Day is more often than not the most useful tool in predicting the outcome of Virginia’s gubernatorial-year elections.”
The analysis shows that Trump’s decline in approval is similar to that of his first term, which would give Democrats the edge if it stayed on its current trajectory, handing them wins by large margins and widening the gap in the House.
It further notes, however, that the race has only begun and could change before Election Day, comparing races to a mile-long race broken into four parts — presidential results, results in the gubernatorial year, midterm results, and the gubernatorial midterm that includes Delegate and Senate races a year before the next presidential election.
“We’re at the beginning of the track, and the results from 2024 bode well for Democrats, especially in the House of Delegates as they have a geographical advantage in the chamber due to their gains with white, affluent and college-educated voters in Republican-held districts while Republicans’ gains have been made in mostly uncompetitive seats,” the analysis states.
Ultimately, the group notes that the upcoming elections this November will be a strong indicator of how future elections will play out.
“This year’s elections will be the first real test of what the makeup of the electorate will look like throughout the rest of Trump’s second term up until 2027,” the analysis states. “We’re rapidly approaching the end of the gubernatorial quarter mile, and Democrats are over 400 yards ahead of the Republicans.”
