The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) now sees four clear pickup opportunities in Florida, along with one in North Carolina, this November.
In a new NRCC memo, the campaign arm of the House GOP says mid-decade redistricting in Florida, Alabama, Louisiana and Tennessee put the party on offense for the Midterms. That means “Republicans are targeting dozens of Democrat-held seats.”
The memo spotlights four districts in Florida, double the number of seats targeted for flips before Gov. Ron DeSantis enacted a new map. That includes Florida’s 9th, 14th, 22nd and 25th Congressional Districts. While the NRCC has yet to officially announce new targets, it has already started expending resources in all the districts.
Moreover, unlike when the NRCC first identified U.S. Reps. Jared Moskowitz and Darren Soto as targets under the old lines, the four Florida districts identified in the memo on the new map were carried by Republican Donald Trump in the 2024 Presidential Election.
The memo shows Soto’s CD 9 under the new cartography went for Trump over Democrat Kamala Harris by 17.8 percentage points. Meanwhile, U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor’s CD 14 went for Trump by 10.4 points.
Moskowitz, who is running in CD 25 under the new lines, will seek re-election on turf where Trump won by 9.3 points. U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz has already announced she will run in the safely Democratic Florida’s 20th Congressional District, leaving open the CD 22 seat, where Trump carried the vote by 10.7 points.
And while North Carolina was redistricted last year, the memo also shows U.S. Rep. Don Davis, a Democrat in the Tar Heel State, in trouble as well. He represents a district Trump won by 11.4 points.
“Today, Democrats are the ones trapped on hostile terrain,” the memo reads. “There are 23 Democrats running in districts President Trump won in 2024, with 21 of those Democrats in seats where the President received over 50% of the vote. Meanwhile, only eight Republicans are running in districts that Kamala Harris won.”
Of note, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently added Castor, Moskowitz and Soto to its Frontline Incumbents program encouraging support to be directed to those candidates to defend their seats. Before new cartography went into effect, the DCCC listed no incumbents in that program even though the NRCC classified Moskowitz and Soto as vulnerable even in districts won by Harris.
The NRCC memo also suggests maps shored up safer seats for several Republicans once considered endangered. “Today, there are only 14 Republicans in districts where Trump received less than 50% of the vote in 2024,” the memo states.
That said, the NRCC did not consider any Florida Republican incumbents to be truly vulnerable under the old lines and doesn’t deem any at risk by now.
The memo also cites Cook Political Report ratings, noting that the political prognosticator lists 12 Democrat-held seats in the country as “R-leaning” or further in Republicans’ favor. That includes three Florida seats: CD 9, 14 and 22. Meanwhile, the same ratings list just six Republican seats as “D-leaning” or more, with none of those in Florida.
Overall, NRCC officials say the redraw of districts across the country leaves the party in a strong position to keep a House majority.
“House Democrats are defending Trump-won seats, losing ground with voters, fighting each other in brutal primaries, and trying to win back the majority on terrain that has shifted decisively against them,” said NRCC Spokesman Mike Marinella. “With the battlefield fully in focus, Republicans are well-positioned to go on offense and hold our House majority.”
