A new Florida Atlantic University (FAU) survey shows that the presidential race has remained relatively unchanged since the Democratic National Convention (DNC).
The latest poll from FAU’s Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) shows Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leading former Republican President Donald Trump among likely voters by 50% to 45%.
That’s nearly unchanged from the last time the FAU survey was in the field, when Harris led 49% to 45% days after the DNC ended.
“The race remains extremely tight, with both candidates having strong bases of support,” said Kevin Wagner, Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the PolCom Lab. “The outcome may hinge on which campaign can better mobilize their core supporters and appeal to undecided voters.”
Some of Harris’ best demographics are voters over 50 (54% support), college-educated White voters (54%), and women (51%). Trump, meanwhile, is doing well with White voters without college degrees (58%) and voters 18-49 (50%).
Pollsters also asked a variant of the horse race question, quizzing voters on who they predict will win. By that metric, Harris holds a 54% to 46% lead.
“Asking people to predict the winner can give a sense of how people see their friends and family voting,” Wagner said. “This type of question can be a window on the political mood and suggests that Vice President Harris’ support continues to be enthusiastic and visible.”
Pollsters found that 57% of women predicted a Harris victory, while 53% of men predicted it. While 58% of voters 50 and older say they expect Harris will win, just 50% of those under 50 say the same. Black voters (84%) and Hispanic voters are confident Harris will win (68%). But 57% of White voters without college degrees expect a Trump victory speech.
The 820-voter survey ran from Sept. 16-17. FAU researchers estimate a 3.4-percentage-point margin of error.
Harris’ 5-point lead in the survey is above her current national polling average. Harris has a 3.8-point lead in FiveThirtyEight’s average, a 2.7-point lead according to Nate Silver, and a 1.9-point edge in the RealClearPolitics average.
