Virginia’s off-year statewide elections for Governor and Cabinet positions often serve as a bellwether for the following year’s Midterm Elections, and this year that might be more the case than ever.
A lot has changed since four years ago when Republican now-Gov. Glenn Youngkin was elected on a wave of pro-parental choice in education sentiment. Then, in 2021, Joe Biden was finishing up his first year in office after defeating then- and now-President Donald Trump. And as is often the case, Youngkin’s victory served as, at least to some degree, a referendum on the party controlling the White House.
But despite Youngkin’s victory, the following year was not the red wave Republicans had hoped for — Democrats over-performed in most states, but while they maintained control of the Senate, they still narrowly lost control of the House.
This year, Democrats are hoping to capitalize on discontent with Trump’s brand of politics, pain from federal job cuts that disproportionately affect Virginia due to its proximity to D.C., and ongoing concern over the government shutdown, which will soon become the longest in U.S. history.
Top of the ticket
Topping the ticket is Abigail Spanberger, who has consistently led her challenger, current Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, in polls.
Multiple surveys show Spanberger with leads near, at or above 10 percentage points, including the most recent Insider Advantage poll this week that put Spanberger exactly 10 points ahead. An Echelon Insights poll last week showed her 12 points ahead, while an Emerson College poll, also from last week, put Spanberger at an 11 point advantage.
Not a single poll dating back to mid-October had Earle-Sears with a lead. Every poll since has shown Spanberger’s up by at least 5 percentage points.
“Abigail Spanberger, the Democrat, has held a consistent lead over Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican, in the polls of Virginia’s open gubernatorial race,” polling researcher Caroline Soler wrote for the New York Times. “Even so, former President Barack Obama campaigned with Spanberger in Norfolk over the weekend, suggesting the party is not taking her polling lead for granted. The contest is seen as an early test of Democratic strength ahead of the 2026 midterms.”
Not just a bellwether
For Democrats running in 2026, Spanberger’s race may carry with it some lessons.
For example, Earle-Sears is running on a playbook that worked well for the GOP in 2024, when Trump won back the White House and Democrats failed to reclaim a majority in the House and lost the party’s majority in the Senate. She has been laser-focused on culture war issues, particularly the issue of transgender women and girls in women’s bathrooms and sports.
Meanwhile, Spanberger has focused her campaign on pocketbook issues, harkening back to the age old mantra coined by James Carville in 1992: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Spanberger last week waded into what is essentially enemy territory, taking her economic message to Fox News in an apparent effort to woo cross party support from Republicans who might be souring on their party. Her message centered on the need to lower costs for Virginia families, grow the state’s economy and create jobs. She spotlighted conversations with conservative voters where she was able to find common ground, and potentially support at the ballot box.
She spoke of would-be constituents who are frustrated by rising medical costs, some of which may be exacerbated by the loss of premium subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, which are set to expire at the end of the year. Extending them is at the heart of the current government shutdown. Without an extension, those who rely on what colloquially has become known as Obamacare could see their health care coverage premiums double or even triple.
She also noted the increasing high cost of other necessities, including rent, mortgage payments, energy bills and groceries, as 300,000 federal workers who live in Virginia are now out of jobs as a result of Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cuts at the beginning of the Trump term.
A Spanberger win Tuesday night, especially a resounding one, would signal to Democrats that economic issues are a winning strategy. It would also potentially signal to Republicans that focusing on issues such as transgender rights might not be as effective as it was even two years ago.
And at least in Virginia, data supports that idea.
An Oct. 27 poll from Roanoke College showed Virginia voters largely disinterested in some of the issues Earle-Sears has been campaigning on, with taxes, abortion, crime, jobs, transgender issues and gun control all polling as important issues among just 4-5% of poll respondents.
Meanwhile, the same poll found broader economic issues top of mind. Threats to democracy — something Spanberger has said Trump represents, and her opponent by association — were the top issue, at 29% of responses. Inflation and cost of living followed at 24%.
Who else is on the ballot?
With Earle-Sears running for Governor and facing term limits as Lt. Governor, an open race to succeed her is on.
The race includes Democratic state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi and Republican talk-radio host John Reid.
Hashmi appears to have an edge over Reid, possibly related to early controversy in his campaign after reports surfaced about allegations Reid was behind a social media account containing sexually explicit photos. Youngkin at the time called on him to drop out of the race, but Reid has consistently denied any involvement with the account.
What little polling there has been varies wildly. A State Navigate poll conducted Oct. 26-28 shows Hashmi with a 12-point lead over Reid. But an Atlas Intel poll taken Oct. 25-30 showed a more modest 6-point lead, while an Echelon Insights poll taken Oct. 28-31 is even closer, with a 3-point advantage for Hashmi.
Voters will also cast a ballot for Attorney General, with Republican incumbent Jason Miyares facing a challenge from Democrat Jay Jones.
Polling shows this is Virginia’s closest statewide contest this year, and headlines show it’s arguably the juiciest.
Two recent polls show Miyares with an edge over Jones, while another two show Jones with a slight lead. All four are within the respective polls’ margins of error.
The close race is likely the result of scandal. Jones has been facing backlash nationwide from GOP officials, electeds and supporters over text messages he sent three years ago to a then-colleague romanticizing shooting then-Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert.
The texts prompted many Republicans, including Miyares, to call for Jones to drop out of the race, arguing his texts supported political violence at a time when such attacks are on the rise — the assassination of Charlie Kirk and attempted assassination of President Trump are still fresh in Republicans’ minds. Even Democrats distanced themselves from Jones after the texts were uncovered, including Spanberger, who criticized the messages but stopped short of calling for him to drop out.
If Miyares retains his seat Tuesday night, Jones’ texts will likely be blamed, especially if Spanberger and Hashmi walk away with a win.
Voters across the state will also cast ballots for various House of Delegates races. Democrats currently hold a narrow 51-48 seat majority, with one seat currently vacant. The party hopes to grow its majority this cycle as political winds continue to somewhat favor them.
Population growth in the D.C. suburbs of northern Virginia has favored Democrats. A Republican candidate for President hasn’t carried the state since 2004, but the most recent election, in 2024, saw Democratic candidate Kamala Harris carry the state with just 52% of the vote, and the state flip flops frequently between Democratic and Republican Governors.
With the government shutdown still ongoing and Virginia being home to a large contingent of impacted federal workers, Democrats are hoping that pain will translate to wins in legislative races.
Polls are open in Virginia from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m.
The state is home to 6.3 million voters. Four years ago, statewide voter turnout for the Governor’s race was about 55%, with about 36% of votes cast before Election Day.
As of Sunday, more than 1.4 million voters had cast a ballot early, about 300,000 more than four years ago, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.
