New population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau show GOP-controlled states on track for gains in House seats after the 2030 Census. Meanwhile, some Democratic states could see a net loss.
But Democratic groups say that doesn’t justify GOP gerrymandering in North Carolina and should produce more in the future.
“It’s no coincidence that Republicans have enacted mid-decade gerrymanders in states like Texas and North Carolina by drawing maps that aim to further silence the very communities driving the most population growth—and they are considering doing the same in Florida,” said John Bisognano, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee.
“That’s because Republicans are seeing these trends, too, and they are terrified of the voters. This dynamic underscores the need for Democratic states to act with urgency to ensure we can ultimately protect a representative democracy.”
The population projections notably showed a net reduction in U.S. population in 2025, largely because of a dramatic decline in humanitarian immigration into the country. The foreign-born population nationwide dropped by 1.5 million between January and June.
But as it relates to distribution of population by state, the projections signal consequence for the next reapportionment process. That includes North Carolina netting an additional congressional seat based on how the population across the U.S. is currently dispersed. Arizona, Idaho and Utah would all also gain a seat, while Florida would pick up two and Texas four.
North Carolina’s Legislature in October approved a new congressional map ahead of the 2026 Midterms that would have 11 Republican-leaning U.S. House seats and just three favoring Democrats. Comparatively, voters elected 10 Republican U.S. representatives from North Carolina and four Democrats in 2024.
That’s despite the state electing Gov. Josh Stein, a Democrat, in the same election. Stein had no power to veto the maps.
The National Democratic Redistricting Committee said state breakdowns should not be the only thing determining how lines are ever drawn. While North Carolina’s Legislature has GOP majorities, the Democratic group noted population growth has occurred largely in cities and within urban, left-leaning communities. It would be wrong to intentionally crack those communities on maps designed to diminish voting power.
“The latest round of census data, paired with the fact that most population growth has occurred in diverse, urban and suburban areas while most population decreases have occurred in primarily white, rural areas, continues to support our projections that metropolitan areas in southern and western states will experience significant growth ahead of 2030,” Bisognano said.
