One of Washington’s top political prognosticators now says Democrats have a decent shot of winning Senate contests in both Georgia and North Carolina.
Cook Political Report shifted both statewide contests out of the “Tossup” category. While both races remain competitive, the ratings now list each Southern state in the “Lean D” column.
Analyst Jessica Taylor wrote that an “increasingly sour environment for Republicans” prompted a change in ratings in four Senate races, all in Democrats’ direction. The website also moved an Ohio Senate race from “Lean R” to “Tossup” and a Nebraska contest from “Solid R” to “Likely R.”
But the shifts in two states where President Donald Trump won electoral votes in 2024 signals significant problems for Senate Republicans.
Georgia U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff has long appeared to be the most at-risk Senate Democrat this election cycle. He won his seat in 2020, unseating a Republican in a race where Trump has long blamed fraud for a series of statewide losses, including his own in the same election cycle.
Meanwhile, the North Carolina seat opened after Trump pressured Republican U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis out of a re-election bid. Michael Whatley stepped down as Republican National Committee Chair in order to run for the open Senate seat with Trump’s endorsement this cycle, but has badly trailed Democrat Roy Cooper, a former Governor, in polls.
Right now, Republicans hold a 53-seat majority in the Senate, but the ratings shift could signal a path to a majority for Democrats. Retaining Ossoff and electing Cooper would be significant steps in that direction, as would unseating appointed Ohio Sen. Jon Husted, a Republican who faces former U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown.
Taylor wrote the North Carolina seat always felt vulnerable.
“We’ve long believed the North Carolina Senate race is the GOP seat Democrats are most likely to flip,” she wrote. “Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is the strongest candidate Democrats could have fielded in the state. He and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley could break spending records, but it’s Cooper who begins the general election with a noteworthy advantage that merits a move to the Lean Democrat column.”
As for Georgia, a bitter GOP Primary has helped Ossoff on top of a Democrat-friendly national climate.
“Georgia is playing host to one of the GOP’s most muddled primaries, which isn’t helping in their quest to oust Sen. Jon Ossoff as the first-term Democrat continues to stockpile eye-popping amounts of cash. Given those dynamics, Georgia Republicans we’ve talked to have been souring on their chances in the Peach State,” Taylor wrote.
