Republicans rejoice.
U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger announced this week that she is forgoing re-election to her seat in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District next year to instead run for Governor in 2025.
Her decision, though much anticipated, prompted Cook Political Report to shift her district from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”
The reason is several-fold.
First, Democrats lose the incumbency advantage. But more than that, they are losing in Spanberger a master fundraiser who has proven she has the political savvy to ward off Republican challengers. Can another recruit be as successful in a Presidential Election year with higher voter turnout? That’s the question.
Spanberger’s district in the outer Washington suburbs went for President Joe Biden in 2020 by 7 percentage points, a margin that leaves little to be desired for a GOP challenger. But it’s plenty doable when the current occupant of the White House is an unpopular octogenarian overseeing a period of inflation that is hitting many Americans where it counts most at the ballot box — in their wallets.
Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman offered a lengthy analysis of why the district is shifting away from Democrats after Spanberger’s announcement, touching on everything from her past career as a CIA officer and service as a moderate Democrat, to expected GOP candidates who already have bank.
Spanberger has won three consecutive races that were close. In her most recent election, she ran in an almost entirely new district that resulted from post-Census reapportionment. Still, she managed to raise more than $9 million, more than enough money to pound GOP candidate Yesli Vega into the ground with a 4-percentage-point victory.
But that came after Vega — a far right conservative who ran with support from the MAGA-aligned House Freedom Caucus — was recorded doubting whether someone could get pregnant from rape. Queue the television ad onslaught.
Now, Republicans might be setting their sites on a candidate Wasserman described as having far less baggage and has demonstrated an ability to raise funds. Derrick Anderson lost to Vega in the GOP Primary a year ago, but he’s a Green Beret, which plays well at the polls.
He also raised $160,000 in just two weeks following his September entrance into the race, according to Wasserman. That’s an impressive sum for a non-incumbent this early in the cycle.
Still, Anderson will have to use some of that money to wade through a GOP Primary. Several other candidates are expected or rumored to be entering the race, including state Del. Tara Durant, biotech investor Bill Moher and state Sen. Bryce Reeves.
Durant is a former elementary school teacher who won her seat in the House of Delegates in a competitive race, meaning she has a resume friendly to voters and a track record that proves she can win a tough race.
Reeves, meanwhile, finished third in the 2022 Primary, giving him at least some reason to take another crack at it.
And then there’s Moher. Where he lacks in name recognition or political base, Wasserman wrote, he makes up for in funds, with $286,000 already on hand.
But an eventual Democratic candidate is likely to face a competitive Primary, too. Wasserman posed several names for the job, including state Sen. Jennifer Carroll Foy — a former gubernatorial candidate with strong support in Prince William County — former Del. Hala Ayala, state Del. Elizabeth Guzman and state Sen. Jeremy McPike.
Wasserman also speculates that Cameron Webb, a University of Virginia doctor and former White House advisor, could make a good candidate. He raised nearly $6 million for a congressional run in a different Charlottesville-based district in 2020, but he grew up in the 7th District, in Spotsylvania County.
This is all speculative, of course, but it makes for interesting speculation after Republicans suffered an electoral blow last week, losing their majority in the House of Delegates while Democrats held on to theirs in the Senate. To Democrats, that’s an indication of positive momentum for 2024. But Republicans see a silver lining in the margins, where they carried seats Biden carried by less than 9 points. Again, Biden carried Virginia’s 7th by just 7 points.
Still, the high turnout in 2024, with a likely Biden/Donald Trump rematch in the works, will drive turnout Democrats need to succeed, particularly among Black and Hispanic voters who make up significant portions of the VA 7 electorate.
And on a final note, the district is a suburb of Washington, D.C., meaning it is home to a lot of federal workers whose votes could be influenced by actions out of Capitol Hill, such as a (wink wink) federal shutdown.
