As the Virginia Governor’s election quickly approaches, it appears to be following historical patterns that could see Democrats taking the win.
Polling across various outlets shows Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger with a strong lead over her Republican opponent, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. She has maintained that lead consistently since campaigning began.
Results from more than a dozen pollsters published by the New York Times Saturday show Spanberger with a 15-percentage-point advantage at best and a 4-percentage-point advantage at worst.
Since 1977, Virginia has historically elected a Governor who belongs to the opposite party of the sitting President, with the exception being former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who was elected in 2013 when former President Barack Obama was in the White House, according to Pluribus News.
Virginia’s off-year gubernatorial elections are often seen as a bellwether that signals how voters view the party in power at the federal level.
An Oct. 27 poll from Roanoke College showed 60% of Virginia respondents said they were certain they would be voting in the Nov. 4 General Election.
The poll also showed President Donald Trump upside down among Virginia voters, with 53% indicating they disapproved of his job performance and just 40% approving.
On the state’s gubernatorial candidates, 47% of respondents indicated a positive opinion of Spanberger, with only 42% viewing her unfavorably. Earle-Sears, however, is upside down, with 45% viewing her unfavorably compared to just 38% who hold a favorable view.
That poll put Spanberger at a 10-point advantage over Earle-Sears, at 51% to 41%.
Spanberger and Earle-Sears have run polarizing campaigns. Spanberger has focused her campaign on lowering costs for Virginia families, growing the state’s economy, and appealing to voters across the aisle.
Earle-Sears has focused more on cultural issues, such as transgender women in bathrooms and women’s sports, immigration, and abortion.
Asked about top issues, poll respondents top response (29%) was threat to democracy, followed by inflation and cost of living (24%). Only 12% listed immigration as their most pressing issue.
Taxes, abortion, crime, jobs, transgender issues, and gun control all came in at 4%-5% of what respondents considered important issues.
The race for Lieutenant Governor is far tighter, meanwhile, with Democratic candidate Ghazala Hashmi holding a 2-percentage-point lead over her Republican opponent John Reid, at 42%-40%
Incumbent Attorney General and Republican Jason Miyares hold an 8-percentage-point lead over his Democratic opponent Jay Jones, or 46%-38%, a lead likely buoyed by Jones’ recent text scandal in which he romanticized shooting a Republican leader.
Earle-Sears has also focused her campaign heavily on Spanberger’s proximity to Jones, whose years-old text messages appeared to show the then state Delegate calling for political violence against former House Speaker Todd Gilbert.
Asked if they were aware of the text messages sent by Jones, 80% said they were. But the scandal doesn’t appear to be changing Jones’ supporters’ minds.
Respondents who indicated support for Jones were then asked if they would still vote for him after knowing about the text messages — 87% said they would still vote for Jones, and only 1% said they would have switched votes to Miyares.
Earle-Sears has released several campaign attack ads painting Spanberger as someone who supports political violence, despite the former Congresswoman continuously disavowing Jones’ actions and political violence as a whole.
