Former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger will add a new title to her resume, this time as Virginia Governor.
The former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) intelligence officer defeated Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in Tuesday’s off-year election to replace incumbent Gov. Glenn Youngkin and deliver for Democrats the state’s top elected post after four years under GOP control.
Spanberger notched a decisive win, earning 57.5% of the vote, according to unofficial results.
Virginia’s off-year statewide elections for Governor and Cabinet positions often serve as a bellwether for the following year’s Midterm Elections, and this year that might be more the case than ever.
A lot has changed since four years ago when Republican Youngkin was elected on a wave of pro-parental choice in education sentiment. Then, in 2021, Joe Biden was finishing up his first year in office as President after defeating then- and now-President Donald Trump. And as is often the case, Youngkin’s victory served as, at least to some degree, a referendum on the party controlling the White House.
But despite Youngkin’s victory, the following year was not the red wave Republicans had hoped for — Democrats over-performed in most states. But while they maintained control of the Senate, they still narrowly lost control of the House.
Now, Democrats are hoping to capitalize on discontent with Trump’s brand of politics, pain from federal job cuts that disproportionately affect Virginia due to its proximity to D.C., and ongoing concern over the government shutdown, which come morning will be the longest in U.S. history.
Spanberger’s victory offers hope for her party that next year’s Midterms will favor Democrats. Though there are some reasons to temper enthusiasm.
Spanberger has consistently led Earle-Sears in polls, meaning her victory isn’t necessarily an upset.
Multiple recent surveys showed Spanberger with leads near, at or above 10 percentage points, including the most recent Insider Advantage poll this week that put Spanberger exactly 10 points ahead. An Echelon Insights poll last week showed her 12 points ahead, while an Emerson College poll, also from last week, put Spanberger at an 11 point advantage.
Not a single poll dating back to mid-October had Earle-Sears with a lead and every poll since has shown Spanberger’s up by at least 5 percentage points.
But even if Spanberger’s victory doesn’t turn out to be the ultimate bellwether, her race may very well offer a roadmap to Democrats running in 2026.
For example, Earle-Sears ran on a playbook that worked well for the GOP in 2024, when Trump won back the White House and Democrats failed to reclaim a majority in the House and lost the party’s majority in the Senate. She has been laser-focused on culture war issues, particularly the issue of transgender women and girls in women’s bathrooms and sports.
Meanwhile, Spanberger focused her campaign on pocketbook issues, harkening back to the age old mantra coined by James Carville in 1992: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Spanberger last week waded into what is essentially enemy territory, taking her economic message to Fox News in an apparent effort to woo cross party support from Republicans who might be souring on their party. Her message centered on the need to lower costs for Virginia families, grow the state’s economy and create jobs. She spotlighted conversations with conservative voters where she was able to find common ground, and potentially support at the ballot box.
She spoke in that interview of residents who are frustrated by rising medical costs, some of which may be exacerbated by the loss of premium subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, which are set to expire at the end of the year. Extending them is at the heart of the current government shutdown. Without an extension, those who rely on what colloquially has become known as Obamacare could see their health care coverage premiums double or even triple.
She also noted the increasing high cost of other necessities, including rent, mortgage payments, energy bills and groceries, as 300,000 federal workers who live in Virginia are now out of jobs as a result of Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) cuts at the beginning of the Trump term.
And at least in Virginia, data supports the idea that many pocketbook issues are top of mind for voters.
An Oct. 27 poll from Roanoke College showed Virginia voters largely disinterested in some of the issues Earle-Sears has been campaigning on, with abortion, crime, transgender issues and gun control all polling as important issues among just 4-5% of poll respondents.
Meanwhile, the same poll found broader economic issues as top concerns. Threats to democracy — something Spanberger has said Trump, and Earle-Sears by association, represent — were the top issue polled, at 29% of responses. Inflation and cost of living followed at 24%.
Elsewhere on Tuesday’s ballot in Virginia, Democratic Lt. Governor candidate Ghazala Hashmi defeated Republican talk-radio host John Reid, offering another glimmer of hope for Democrats looking ahead to the Midterms.
Further down the ballot, Attorney General Jason Miyares lost his job, falling to Democratic challenger Jay Jones.
Jones’ victory came despite recent scandal.
Jones has been facing backlash nationwide from GOP officials, electeds and supporters over text messages he sent three years ago to a then-colleague romanticizing shooting then-Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert.
